I’m with the folks who say we’re likely in an AI bubble similar to the dot-com boom. That is, it’s going to pop, but we’ll still be left with something great. But I can’t rule out that AI is so profound a change that there won’t be a pop. More a correction, trimming out the fluff that isn’t useful.
Scott Willsey @manton hopefully a correction towards targeted, useful application vs the current “it does everything in one model!" use
Lee Schneider Agree! Seeing the forest through the trees will foretell what will be next.
Brad Miller Funny how we have to characterize a period of rapid innovation and investment as a bubble. The impact of LLMs across society over the last two years seems both newsworthy and deserving of investment.
Brad Miller Not to mention search engines like kagi.com that have very quickly taught me to add a ? at the end of every query to get an excellent summary of the best search hits! Google’s dominance in search is going to be challenged by lots of innovation in using LLMs!
Manton Reece @bnmnetp I agree with that. Some people assume it’s over-hyped, but it’s probably still too soon to know.
Numeric Citizen some will argue that the innovation rate already started to slow down…. less and less improvements with each major models… I don’t have an opinion about this very specific claim… but I do think that we are in for another bubble.
Steve Tibbett @manton Most companies haven’t really figured out what to do with it yet but they're working on it. I think we'll be seeing little bursts of advancement for years as we try things and some of them stick. Probably need less investment in models, more in applications that use them.
condie @manton there are genuine huge advances going on with AI right now, but the vast majority are not directly visible to the average consumer. I think most of the “shovel generative AI into our product” stuff is going to go away
Rene van Belzen Amazon wouldn’t agree with that dot-com boom statement. They weathered it and came out on top, I guess through stubbornness and dumb luck. The current _AI bubble_ seems to be driven by the spaghetti-against-the-wall principle, which is often the only way to innovate when people don’t know what they’re doing nor care about the consequences (read: big tech companies and start-ups). A shake-out seems inevitable.
Christopher Wilson @renevanbelzen That seems my impression too (akin to a lot of dotcom boom then? Genuine question). I suspect there will be a burst and many startups will go out of business as they 1. aren’t useful. 2. traditional methods are cheaper/better. 3. there are too many competitors doing the same thing.
But a few useful companies will survive.