We are so used to being able to do almost anything in software. For example, today I was looking at how long it takes to load the list of your blog posts in Micro.blog. It’s a couple seconds, but I’d like it to be half a second. I know from many years of web experience that there is no technical reason why it can’t be faster. Just a little more caching and database optimizations.
With the Apple Intelligence and Siri delays, people have speculated on why it’s late. Maybe it’s about getting the security right. Maybe it’s just buggy and taking longer than expected.
But what if Apple has discovered that it’s not actually possible? AI is entirely new, with new requirements that stress the limits of hardware. Apple is attempting to cram a clever intermingling of data and Siri features into 8 GB of RAM. As a comparison, the largest version of DeepSeek R1 can only be run on a brand new Mac Studio with the M3 Ultra and 512 GB of RAM.
Apple does have an out if on-device models fall over: private cloud compute. But scaling that out to hundreds of millions of iPhone users goes well beyond what Apple had presumed was needed when they talked last year about ramping up production of M2-based servers for AI.
If Apple needs to lean on the cloud to really make Siri work, I think it will be the largest server undertaking that Apple has ever attempted. And they need to balance this with their commitments to energy use and the environment. This is not something you just spin up out of nothing.
Another path would be to simplify their approach, starting with a more manageable set of tasks that the new Siri could do. Something that fits within the limits of iPhone hardware and a realistic deployment of new servers. Apple could focus on making Siri a little more capable and more reliable, saving some of the harder challenges for later. Most people have no idea what Apple promised last year, despite the TV ads, so a reset of expectations could get Apple back on track.
We don’t know what’s going on inside Apple. Apple Intelligence might need a little more time or much more time. The only truly worrying scenario would be if the sunk cost fallacy is blinding them to how badly they are stuck.